Today was the high profile summer summit between President Trump of the U.S. and Vladimir Putin of Russia. There is not a lot expected, but it will give the talking heads on MSM and the podcasters on YouTube something to chatter about, and maybe even distract them from asking for the pedo list release. You know what I mean. Stay awake and stay critical. The truth is, Putin is not likely to yield to Mr. Art of the deal, Trump, no matter the optics or the handshake moments. The reasons run deep.
For decades, Moscow has seen NATO expansion eastward toward Russia’s borders as an existential threat. Since the 1990s, each wave of expansion with countries like Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania has been viewed in the Kremlin as a direct encroachment. Any U.S. president, including Trump, who does not address this security concern to Russia’s satisfaction will hit a brick wall in negotiations. Russia’s war in Ukraine is not just about territory, it is about influence, access to the Black Sea, and preventing Ukraine from being absorbed into NATO’s orbit. For Putin, backing down would signal weakness both domestically and internationally.
Many think that Putin is trying to revive the old Russian Empire of late. He is most likely trying to preserve what Russia is today.
And Russia also wields its oil and gas exports as political tools. Concessions to the U.S. could undermine its energy leverage in Europe and weaken its economic position. Putin’s foreign policy is anchored in resisting U.S. dominance and building a multipolar global order with power centers in Moscow, Beijing, and other capitals. Yielding to Trump would contradict that long term goal. His power at home rests partly on his image as the man who stands up to the West. Appearing to bow to Washington, even to Trump, risks political capital in Moscow.
This summit might produce photo ops and polite statements, but beneath the smiles the geopolitical chessboard is still set, expecting anything more is a recipe for massive disappointment. These players are not swapping sides anytime soon. Maybe the most they can do is that, next time they will reserve a seat for the main actor of this show, Mr.Zelensky, at the cool and powerful kids table. We live to see.
Pal Ronnie
No comments:
Post a Comment